The New Bear: 21st Century Russia

Finally, it is asked: "New Cold War?"

2008-09-03T08:16:00.003-05:00

I've been saying for several years now that a new Cold War exists, if not between the U.S. and Russia, then between Russia and its neighbor states.

Quoting the BBC:

"The Russian military operation against Georgia and its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have led to concerns amounting at times to near panic about whether a new Cold War is under way."

Furthermore:

"The Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has said that he does not want a new Cold War but is not afraid of one either."

While it's clear that Putin is still in charge, even as he boosted Russian nationalism and asserted some regained military might, Putin never so directly acknowledged the increased tensions as has Medvedyev.

Link: Testing for a new 'Cold War' in Crimea

Putin: Russia needs to go back to Cuba

2008-08-04T16:51:00.002-05:00

A Reuters story states that Russian news agency Interfax reported that "Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Monday said it was time for Russia to rebuild links with former Cold War ally Cuba."

According to Reuters,

The Kremlin is angry at U.S. plans for a missile defence system in Eastern Europe, and last month a news report suggested Russia might use Cuba, a thorn in America's side for half a century, as a refueling stop for nuclear-capable bombers.
Putin's remarks came after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin reported on a recent three-day visit to Cuba, where he discussed a raft of trade and investment issues and met with Raul Castro, Fidel's brother and now the island's leader.

"We agreed on a priority direction for cooperation, this being energy, the mining industry, agriculture, transport, health care and communications," news agency RIA quoted Sechin as saying.

The new Cold War is becoming more and more like the old Cold War all over again.

NPR: Kyrgyz Town Lives with Radioactive Soviet Legacy

2008-07-14T16:19:00.004-05:00

NPR has a lengthy and detailed story dated Feburary 5, 2008 by its Russian field agent Ivan Watson on the heaps of radioactive waste that the Soviet Union left in the town of Mailuu-Suu in Kyrgyzstan. Its residents "are accustomed to living next to radioactive waste. Some locals even joke that they need radiation to survive."

Who knows; perhaps the old stories of the 1950s about exposure to radiation producing horrible mutants that terrorize villages at night and eat babies will be true. More likely it will result in huge groundwater contamination and dozens of slow deaths by cancer.

Still higher tensions between Georgia and Russia

2008-07-11T13:15:00.004-05:00

What's behind this? Separatism is strong in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as previously discussed on this blog and Russia media sources. Georgia accused Russia of "sending fighter jets into its airspace to undermine a visit by American Secretary of State Rice" this past Wednesday, July 9, and then recalled its ambassador to Russia on July 10. Interesting times...Publish Post

NPR on Soviet invasion of Afghanistan

2008-06-06T16:21:00.002-05:00

NPR's Ivan Watson had a story on today's (June 6, 2008) All Things Considered entitled "Experts: Lessons of Soviets in Afghanistan Ignored," in which some interviewees argue that America is now making many of the same mistakes that the Soviet Union made in their invasion of Afghanistan. The Soviet attack lasted ten years; the American's is just seven years old, so far.

We are facing so many relics of the Cold War. Iraq was the American proxy against the Soviet proxy of Iran. Iran had been our plaything for a while, too. Afghanistan, Iran, and Iraq still dominate the headlines today.

Zelenograd, the Soviet Union's Silicon Valley wanna-be

2008-05-10T19:32:00.003-05:00

The Register: How a pair of American spies created the Soviet Silicon Valley

"Few stories in computing history come close to matching the tale of Zelenograd – the Soviet Union's attempt at creating something along the lines of Silicon Valley."

This ties together two of my life's passions, computers and Soviet Russia.

Part 1 • Part 2

Tanks and troops and ICBMs, oh my!

2008-05-09T08:10:00.002-05:00

It seems just like old times! The Guardian has a very good take on the renewed display of military might in Red Square. The BBC also has a spot on this. Most amusing in that article was a quote from V. Putin, who "said earlier that the display of heavy weapons in this year's Victory Day parade was 'not sabre-rattling', but 'a demonstration of our growing defence capability'."

• • •
Previously undiscussed here: Georgia accuses Russia of shooting down drone.

Questions from this: How did Georgia have or get a drone? Who sold it to them, or did they make it themselves?

Second, the shoot-down happened on 21 April, and occurred over the separatist region of Abkhazia. It seems likely that Russia would not want Abkhazia to break off from Georgia — we don't want to give the Chechens any ideas, eh?

Russia "expels US embassy staff"

2008-05-08T12:28:00.002-05:00

This just got interesting.

BBC:

Russia has ordered the expulsion of two military attaches from the American embassy in Moscow, US officials say.

The US state department said it would comply with the order although it objected to it.

Two Russians have been expelled from Washington in recent months, one in November and the second on 22 April.

Apparently this is unrelated to the sit-in by National Bolshevik activists at the Russian embassy in Kiev. (Is it?)

2008-05-06T21:30:00.001-05:00

The Independent: Power struggle as Medvedev takes office

Should be interesting... more on Medvedev later.

Georgia, Russia, and Abkhazia

2008-04-30T09:13:00.003-05:00

The pressure to have Georgia become part of NATO may be having an adverse effect upon the state of Abkhazia. While ostensibly part of Georgia, Abkhazia's population is largely non-Georgian, but pro-Russian.

Under the Soviet Union, Abkhazia had the status of an Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic within the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic. This status was recognized within Chapter 10, Article 85 of the Soviet constitution of 1977.

The office of NATO Secretary General Scheffer has released a brief statement expressing concern over Russia's attempts to establish legal links with the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The BBC article "
Russia warned over Georgia move" has a map of the region showing the areas in question.

In my recollection, NATO was formed to counter the evident iron bloc that formed around the Soviet Union after World War II. Some questions to ask: What is the role of NATO after the Cold War? (The first one, anyway.) Do we still need NATO? What is the significance of having eastern European states join NATO?

Puzzling.

We know about androids. But what about robots?

2008-04-21T17:32:00.003-05:00

The book "What Do Robots Think About?" by French author Jean-Pierre Petit was translated into Russian in 1987, and a scanned copy is now available online, complete with commentary and translation. That's good for us that ни говорят по-русски.

It's over here. (Hat tip to Boing Boing.)

Truly important things in Russia's future: iTunes Russia on April 21, 2008?

2008-04-15T22:48:00.005-05:00

According to MacRumors:

CNews.ru believes that Apple will be launching iTunes Russia on April 21st 2008.

Evidence for iTunes Russia "first came from billboards appearing in Moscow on Friday, with the words 'iSkoro 21.04.2008’ (iSoon 21.04.2008).

Further evidence is from two domains registered: iMacintosh.ru and itunes-store.ru which redirect to a splash page that says "iTunes Store Russia 21.04.2008." The domains appear to be registered by Apple IMC Limited, "the leading distributor of Apple products in Russia."

Going to the site, we see a very dramatic black Apple logo eclipsing... a light source. We think it looks pretty cool anyway.

We will find out in some six days.

Update: May Day 2008. No word so far, although MacRumors.com rightly wonders if it was a fake. Bogus products in the age of the internets? never!

Moscow Times: "Putin Hints At Splitting Up Ukraine"

2008-04-08T20:32:00.007-05:00

Wowsers! We knew Putin wasn't quite "stepping down" with the end of his term as president of the Russian Federation, but this is a little over the top.

Quoth the Moscow Times:

President Vladimir Putin hinted at last week's NATO summit in Romania that Russia would work to break up Ukraine, should the former Soviet republic join the military alliance, Kommersant reported Monday.
Putin "lost his temper" at the NATO-Russia Council in Bucharest during Friday's discussions of Ukraine's bid to join NATO, Kommersant cited an unidentified foreign delegate to the summit as saying.

"Do you understand, George, that Ukraine is not even a state!" Putin told U.S. President George W. Bush at the closed meeting, the diplomat told Kommersant.

After saying most of Ukraine's territory was "given away" by Russia, Putin said that if Ukraine joined NATO it would cease to exist as a state, the diplomat said.

Putin threatened to encourage the secession of the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea and eastern Ukraine, where anti-NATO and pro-Moscow sentiment is strong, the diplomat said, Kommersant reported.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who accompanied Putin at the summit, said Monday he did not hear Putin's purported remarks about Ukraine and could not confirm the report.

While I certainly can't say <<вы услышали их здесь сперва>>, we thank the Moscow Times for this intriguing coverage. (Please don't mind their many Internal Sever Errors...)

What's your take? Would, or could,Vladiye make Ukraine pay for joining NATO?

NATO: No admissions for Georgia and Ukraine (yet)

2008-04-03T07:22:00.002-05:00

According to the BBC, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a relic of the Cold War designed to counter the eastern communist bloc, "will not yet offer membership to Georgia or Ukraine after the 26-member alliance was split amid strong objections from Russia." It is curious that the lame duck President Bush demand that the two former Soviet republics be admitted to NATO, and the reason for this are not yet clear. Regardless of Bush's wish, France, Germany, and Russia strenuously objected to the proposed admission.

The former Yugoslav republic Macedonia also will not be invited to join NATO [Link.], while Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined as "full and equal partners" in 2004. [Link .]

What purpose does NATO hold in this post-Cold War world? Does it make sense to have this ghost of the Cold War still present and operating? And how does NATO justify its presence in Afghanistan? Questions, questions...

NPR: Edward Lucas on 'The New Cold War' with Russia

2008-02-20T21:50:00.003-06:00

While nursing a lurking illness this morning, I turned on the radio at just the right time to hear a story on National Public Radio about journalist Edward Lucas' new book The New Cold War: Putin's Russia and the Threat to the West. In it, Lucas argues that a new Cold War is being fought, this one with with cash, natural resources, as well as diplomacy and propaganda. Importantly, Lucas asserts that the West is "unwilling to admit what's happening."

This blog was originally entitled "The New Cold War," as is visible in the URL. My hypothesis was that there was indeed a new Cold War in the making or even happening, spurred by President Bush's insistence on building a missile defense system and his brazen unilateralism. I clearly wasn't the only person pondering this—witness "The New American Cold War" in The Nation or Ernest Partridge's "Oh What a Lovely (Cold) War!" The authors respectively argue that we are indeed pitched in another ideological and economic battle, although now our ostensible opponent employs capitalism and autocracy rather than Marxist-Leninist communism gone awry.

To me, a historian-in-training and amateur Rusologist, hearing Lucas's argument, that this new Cold War is being denied by the West while Russia fights with one part Russian natural resources, one part diplomacy, and one part Russian hardball, seems to perfectly fit. Witness the BBC's "What the real Cold War meant," and the assertion made by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that there was not a new Cold War in the offing, and from a blog jockey's perspective, it fits together quite nicely, at least in terms of Colbertian logic (e.g., you know it in your gut). While actually reading the book and seeing how my perceptions and beliefs abotu the situation compare and contrast with Mr. Lucas' has yet to happen, it is safe to say that I am confident enough to be able to read something with which I disagree and not toss it aside simply because we disagree.

Can't rest on your laurels now, not when you've got none.

2007-11-14T09:45:00.000-06:00

I had no idea how many missle silos we (the U.S.) has.

Montana

Wyoming-Nebraska-Colorado

How many dot Russia and the former Soviet Union? Do any of them still have missiles?

Just makes you think a bit.

2007-11-07T09:12:00.000-06:00

While this blog has been dormant for some time, we still live in interesting times, which has spurred me (Konstantin) to revive this blog. Look at what we have below:

CFE Treaty can be modified after all signatories ratify its adapted version - Lavrov Interfax Russia, Russia

Heightened tension as Russia drops arms treaty
Euronews.net, France

Russia Moves Toward Treaty Suspension
The Guardian, UK

Russia parliament votes to suspend arms treaty
Canada.com, Canada

Russia bolsters its political, economic, and military strength in the world, while nostalgia for Soviet rule resurges. National Public Radio [USA] had a lengthy story on the air this morning , "The Good Old Days?," about many Russians now see the time of Communist rule as having been better times.

I will try to get a русский друг моих — a Russian friend of mine — to write something about this. The point of this blog was not to be simply linking to international news stories about the resurgent Russia, but to have multiple people writing about it, and eventually, readers commenting about it. The challenges will be to get it going, and keep it going.

До свидания,
K.

BBC: Russia suspends arms control pact

2007-07-14T19:30:00.000-05:00

Oh boy.

Thanks almost entirely to the far-sighted international vision of George W. Bush, Russia has withdrawl from a key Cold War treaty and committed itself to another arms race. Russia has informed the U.S. that it intends to pull out of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

Well, Georgie didn't want to feel bound by the ABM Treaty either. Can you really blame Vladimir Vladimirovich for wanting to find a way out?

While Russia has "not fully withdrawn" from the treaty, for all intents and purposes it has done just that. According to the BBC, Russian withdrawal "means that Russia will no longer permit inspections or exchange data on its [weapon] deployments," and has laid out a "six-month timetable for withdrawal and opening the way for the creation of an anti-missile defense system."

Let the new race begin.

"Stalin Planned Army of Ape-Man Super-Warriors"

2007-05-15T17:28:00.000-05:00

Here's one from the Old Cold War files. A story originally running in The Scotsman claimed that Uncle Joe wanted to breed a race of hybrid ape-humans to employ in battle. As we know, Russia and the Soviet Union were on the bruising ends of two global wars in the twentieth century, a big reason for mirroring Kaiser Wilhelm II's strategy of conquering eastern Europe and making it regime-friendly satellite states. The ape-man warriors might have made a fine replacement for the millions of conscripted soldiers who died in the First and Second World Wars, assuming you could successfully demobilize them after combat, something Wilhelm had a little trouble doing after the Great War. And of course nothing bad came of that...

But I digress. This article is almost two years old. Can anyone vouch for the authenticity of the claims? I will ask our resident Muscovite when he returns from Moscow. In the meantime, here are the links to the MosNews and the original from The Scotsman.

C. Rice: There is no new Cold War

2007-05-15T15:10:00.001-05:00

Depending on how much weight you put in what the Bush Administration says, it appears that we've been rejected even before we got off to a start. While in Moscow for talks with her counterpart Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rejected the notion that the tensions between the two nations are anything like what they were during the Cold War. We agree. The two superpowers are no longer threatening to kill each other over deep ideological matters. But the new missile defense tensions are something different from the many systems that were proposed and tested during the Cold War. The last of them, the Strategic Defense Initiative, would have been based on a massive network of orbiting satellites with laser beans. While still in violation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972, it was a different game from what proposal of having the new system based in Poland and the Czech Republic. The laser beams would be in space, not on the ground. Either way, it never went forward despite billions of dollars being spent on research for it.

Although the Arms Control Association hailed the November 2006 takeover of the U.S. Congress by Democrats as a "coup de grace" to Bush's desire to withdraw from the ABM Treaty, Bush's crew still still talking about it and working on it. His talk of withdrawing from the treaty was one thing which sparked an interest in this blog. And we should know by now, does the fact that two of the world's most powerful governments saying there's no new Cold War mean there's not one?

Certainly not. As I've said for some time, this one's going to be even bigger and better than the last one. Even Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is evening dressing up for it!

We are not the only ones who think there's more to it than Ms. Rice or Mr. Lavrov would like to give credit for. Andrei Illarionov, former aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, told a Russian radio station that a keynote speech Putin delivered on 10 May 2006 to Russia’s Federal Assembly "shows that Russia has chosen a course towards militarization and sends out a clear signal to restore Soviet-era values and prepare for confrontation with the West." [Link.]

The New Cold War -- NOW With More Nuclear Weapons!

2007-04-27T14:42:00.000-05:00

What interesting times we live in.

The President of the United States wants to put a missile defense system in Eastern Europe.

Sure, says Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.

Just don't mind while we add counter-defensive systems and make new ICBMs the missile defense system can't hit.

But there's much more to this than Bush's hegemonic dreams. There's more than Putin's new Russian ICBMs. But they're all part of the big new game. The New Cold War, which is going to be even bigger and even better than the last one!

Many people have seen the writing on the wall for a while. Despite Bush looking into Putin's eyes, or his hoped-for missile reduction (just don't mind the tactical nukes, eh?), Putin has been flexing Russia's newfound strength, which has primarily come from oil. (Ech, oil. Couldn't Russia be a biodiesel production powerhouse? Couldn't we kick up an old-fashioned American Midwest-Ukrainian breadbasket rivalry? "We can make more biodiesel than you with our good ol' American soybeans!" "Nyet, biodiesel production has increased by 125% in the past quarter alone!")

There's the former Soviet republics. There's Chechnya, the connection of some Chechen terrorists to Al-Qaeda. We love democracy, but don't mind too much when they kill the right sort of bad people in the name of protecting ~~oil~~ democracy. Oil is a big part of it. The whole issue of trying to build pipelines around Chechnya, or what Brezhnev was trying to accomplish by invading Afghanistan.

Of course, since the U.S. helped get the Soviets out of Afghanistan, there's been peace in the region. Just like how things are hunky-dory in previous Cold War proxy states Iran and Iraq. We did everything right. Nothing bad came of it. Right?

Part of what we'll do here is explore just what happened there, at least what we think happened. By and large, most people don't know about any of this, how Iran and Iraq were proxies in the Cold War, who the U.S. paid to fire rockets at Soviet helicopters in Afghanistan. (That one tall guy with the beard... what was his name? Bush was so hot to get him for a while. Oh well. The important thing to remember is that we got Saddam Hussein, and Iraq has been a shopper's paradise ever since.)

So then. We'll be exploring the ever-evolving U.S.-Russian relationship, nuclear treaties and armaments, leaders of countries involved in both The Old Cold War and the New One. We'll delve deep into Russian geography of all sorts (political, social, ethnic, etcetera).

I can't do it all myself. Want to help write? I'm looking for people who can write coherently, are interested in Russia/the New Cold War/The Old Cold War — there's so many topics that it would be foolish to try and condense them into a short list. Please send a note if you would like to help. Posts will be occasional, at least for now. But things are getting too darn interesting to let this go without writing about any longer.